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The success of the Duty Free Centre and other facilities in the Grenada Cruise Port area dependant on the flow of cruise passengers, cruise ship crews, stay-over tourists and locals who visit the shops and restaurants provided by the Centre. In January 2001, Zublin retained Bermello Ajamil/Lambert Advisory Group, a Miami based consultancy, to carry out a cruise market analysis on order to assess Grenada’s market position in the southern Caribbean, as well as a retail analysis. The reports, which have been updated since Hurricane Ivan both showed promising development prospects in the overall markets, and indicated growth potential for the island, in comparison with its neighbours.
The retained Advisory Group conducted several on-sight investigations in Grenada and its neighbouring islands, and analysed public data provided by local governments and agencies. Its analysis of Grenada’s potential cruise passenger and retail business growth was based on a synthesis of three different methodologies: Historic Trend Analysis, which extrapolates historic trends based on assumptions; Market Capture Analysis, which analyses how much of expected future growth may actually be “captured” by the respective location; and Scenario Based Forecasts, which attempt to bring market, economic, and political factors, etc. into the analysis.
In conclusion, the Advisory Group finds support for a forecasted range of cruise passenger arrivals to Grenada of between 250,000 to 300,000 in 2005 and 500,000 to 600,000 in 2016. Within Grenada, the Cruise Port is expected to be the greatest beneficiary from these potential increases.
The latest data from the Grenada Board of Tourism are exactly in line with the forecasts of the Advisory Group and show for the year 2003/04 238,000 pax, and the latest estimates for 2004/05 (including the cancellations due to Hurricane Ivan) a very encouraging 275,000 pax. These numbers have been used as basis for our calculation model on page 14.
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